Three days after China announced the setting up of an Air Defence
Identification Zone (ADIZ) to bolster its claims over parts of the
disputed East China Sea, a persisting lack of clarity about how Beijing
plans to enforce its control over the contested area has risked
fuelling regional tensions, analysts say.
While China has said that aircraft that enter the ADIZ
without notifying authorities may risk facing interception from defence
forces, two American B-52 bombers were, on Tuesday, allowed to pass
through the region, flying within the ADIZ for close to two and a half
hours without interference.
Chinese officials on Wednesday confirmed that two
aircraft had flown through the eastern rim of the ADIZ. Defence
Ministry spokesperson Geng Yangsheng told reporters Chinese armed
forces had "monitored the entire process".
Yet it remains unclear whether "identification" by
armed forces is the only action China intends to take when aircraft
enter the zone.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Qin Gang told reporters that "different
and corresponding measures" would be employed for "different
occasions".
Diplomats from three countries said the Saturday
announcement by China came as a surprise, suggesting that Beijing may
have been better served by bringing countries in the region on board
first before rolling out its plan. Failure to do so, coupled with
persisting ambiguity about China's plans to enforce its claims, had
needlessly stirred regional anxieties, they suggested.
Mr. Qin of the Foreign Ministry said "relevant
countries" had been notified before Saturday's announcement, although
he declined to name them.
But sources said countries such as South Korea and
Japan were told only a few hours before the formal announcement on
Saturday morning.
Japan, which is involved in territorial disputes with China over the
Senkaku or Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea - the islands lie
within both countries' air defence zones, which are overlapping - has
warned that the move could result in "unexpected" incidents. Both
countries have already had run-ins between naval vessels, while Japan
recently scrambled fighter jets and threatened to shoot down a Chinese
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle.
The U.S., for its part, has made clear that its
aircraft will not follow China's demands, and will only adhere to its
own regulations which state that aircraft only need to notify countries
if they are heading towards their airspace, not when they are merely
transiting through such zones.
Even South Korea, which has recently enjoyed warming
ties with China, has expressed "regret" and concern over the move, as
the ADIZ also overlaps with its own air defence zone.
Rory Medcalf, Director of the International Security
Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy, said the move
would likely make tensions over the disputed East China Sea islands
"even harder to manage".
"An ADIZ is not a provocative or negative step in
itself; indeed, it can be in the interests of stability and security of
the nation enforcing it," he wrote in an article posted on the
institute's website, pointing that the U.S., Japan and South Korea had
already set up similar zones.
"If China’s new zone did not include disputed maritime
territory, if its requirements for compliance applied only to aircraft
heading into Chinese airspace, and if neighbours like Japan and South
Korea had been consulted ahead of the announcement, then there would be
little or nothing for others to object to," he added. Instead, the move
was "a unilateral step, announced suddenly and apparently without
consultation with two countries whose civilian and military aircraft
will be most affected, the US and Japan."
On Wednesday, the question remained as to why Beijing even took the
step of risking fanning regional tensions with the announcement if it
planned to only "identify" aircraft and not intercept them - as it did
to the two B-52s on Tuesday.
In fact, the move comes at a time when the new Chinese
leadership has launched a charm offensive to bolster ties with
neighbours and tone down tensions over the South China Sea, where China
has, in recent years, had run-ins with vessels from Vietnam and the
Philippines.
President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang recently travelled to
Southeast Asia promising to expand trade and investment, and reached an
agreement with Vietnam on joint exploration in the South China Sea,
which is contested by more than 10 countries.
Mr. Qin said China may also consider setting up similar air defence
zones to fortify its other frontiers after "completing preparations".
This could, analysts suggested, include parts of the South China Sea.
Such a move would be certain to inflame tensions.
As air defence zones generally extend beyond a
country's territory into international airspace, it is less likely that
China will take the more provocative step of setting up such a zone
across its western or northern frontiers, where it shares land borders
with India, Russia and a number of Central Asian countries.
